Going Global: International Outlook for Private Companies

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Similar to oil, supply-sensitive agriculture products still have upside potential for the second half. Morgan current forecasts, which could lead to the market continuing to price an aggressive path in the second half of the year. The FOMC has less room to ease than in past cycles and Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated a willingness to act more aggressively because of this binding constraint.

The Committee is also very focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored.

China Going Global: What Are the Key Trends and Outlook?

Elsewhere in Europe, the Bank of England and Scandinavian central banks are on hold. Geopolitical risks and Brexit will remain in the spotlight, with a late focus on Italy because of expected general elections and a demanding budget. In the Euro area a 10 bps cut in the deposit rate is expected in September without tiering, but Euro area rates will be mostly driven by the market pricing an increasing probability of further easing.

In foreign exchange markets, recent global macro developments are constructive for safe reserve currencies and negative for lower yielding high-beta currencies. But overall it is a muddied picture for the broad dollar index. Historically, the USD does well on a broad trade-weighted basis whenever global growth is weak or weakening, irrespective of whether the U.

The dollar is not expected to appreciate against all currencies as the Fed lowers rates, with other safe-haven currencies likely to outperform in an anti-cyclical easing phase.

Both currencies together with the dollar are historically very effective hedges to either a U. Since the breakdown of U.

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Given the risks to the growth outlook along with dovish revisions to developed market DM policy rates, policy easing across EM is now expected. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read J. Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information, including important disclosures.

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Equity Strategy, J. As easing from both China and the Fed can probably offset the impact of current tariffs and prevent a recession, asset allocation remains cyclical. Log into your account.

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